Pieter Thiel describes a framework in his book Zero to One that feels strikingly correct. The theory describes what I’ve experienced anecdotally in my interactions with people, governments and companies in the US and Europe.
To really create innovation you need a society that has definite optimism. It looks towards the future with optimism and it has a definite goal it’s working towards. We are currently in a period without definite optimism.
Back in the 1500–1700’s Europe was the place to be for definite optimism. People explored the world, invented new technologies and fought wars. Nowadays, Europe is in a state of indefinite pessimism. There is no real hope for the future and no common goal to work towards. Hence the old continent makes up rules and regulation to kill time and collect fees.
The US still has a strong belief in the future. There is a certain energy present. Young people are ambitious and want to do big things. The problem is, which big things? There is no well defined common goal, so the society and economic activity starts to optimize what’s already there. This is okay, but won’t lead to real innovation and sustained economic growth.
Definite optimism in a society is the driving force behind innovation and consequently, behind advancing humanity. How can we align a large group of people to work towards a common goal?
Some examples from history: war, religion, formation of new countries, space programs, rebounding after a disaster.